The Scramble

This year seems to be the crossing point of several different threads. When this crossing happens, history can become unstable and generate unpredictable outcomes. The chaotic reaction model expresses the same thing when the reactants are in a highly energized state.

The first, and most important observation, about the present state of affairs is that we cannot know the outcome. The eventual result will probably be determined by very small perturbations at the time of decision. By analogy, a very small shove on a comet when it is (seemingly aimlessly) floating about the Kuiper belt can make the difference between falling into the Sun or hitting the Earth on its next inbound trip. Until the comet starts falling toward the center of the Solar System, we will not know what effect the shove had on its orbit. Once the transition takes place, it is nearly impossible to stop. So, right now is a very nervous time because we don't know where we are headed. Worse, we cannot know what a shove here or there might do, because the collection of interations is too complicated. Yet, we also know that a small push here or there, applied now, will make all the difference.
 

What are some of the stones in the coming kaleidoscopic alignment?
 

One of the biggest factors must be American Imperialism; hubris now bringing about its own downfall, as in a Greek tragedy. The Bandit and his Neocon braggards thought they could undermine North Korea and Iran by calling them the "Axis of Evil." Instead, it was discovered the cheif scientist, AQ Khan, of our sometime ally, Pakistan, was the mastermind of nuclear proliferation. Khan doesn't matter anymore, now that the Genie is out of the bottle, because the Genie is much larger than its creator or any of its adversaries. Short of nuclear war, the United States is now confronted by adversaries who are willing to play the trump card, nuclear war, rather than submit. Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) only works on those who cravenly fear for their lives. The impudent Bandit policy, pre-emptive unilateralism, has brought us back to the nuclear Armegeddon threatened by the Cuban Missile Crisis.
 

Center stage in the current crises is oil. The huge quantities of oil consumed by profligate Americans is controlled by the United States' enemies, particularly Iran. Bandit attempts to overthrow Chavez in Venezuela failed, and now Latin America is moving Left, not Right. Receipts from sales of South American oil are being used to help the poor, not to fill the pockets of the rich. In Nigeria, guerrilas are making it difficult to ship its oil. And, the Iraqi insurgents have effectively prevented American takeover and use of Iraqi oil. All this falls under Osama Bin Laden's explicit policy of hitting the United States where it hurts: the pocketbook.
 

The ever-compliant Saudis are pumping more oil than ever, but much of that oil is not useable as low-sulfur fuel. As the pumps run faster in Saudi Arabia, the day of depletion moves ever nearer, while solution of that country's social problems remain as far away as ever. All of that brings closer Bin Laden's dream of restoring the Caliphate in Riad.
 

Of course, oil is also at the heart of global climate change. Catastrophic amounts of CO₂ and other pollutants are being dumped into the air, not only inducing a greenhouse effect, but also changing the ecology of entire regions and their agriculture. Studies have shown, for example, that increasing carbon dioxide does stimulate vegetative growth, but may actually decrease per acre crop yield in important species such as soybean. A recent TV documentary about China's Three Gorges Dam noted that a clear day is now rare anywhere in China due to the smog produced by coal and oil burning. Chinese people are suffering heart and lung diseases in record numbers.
 

The Bandit arrived at the California Fuel Cell Partrnership in West Sacramento last Saturday to tout the Hydrogen Economy. The local press failed to note some 1,500 protestors on the scene, partly because, as usual, the Secret Service and police kept them several hundred feet away. One TV reporter noted how surprising it was that less than 100 people were present for the Bandit's photo-op. While she was outdoors making this statement, the camera framed her against a background looking away from where the protestors were visible. The compliant media treated the event as a celebrity stop, and had little to say about its significance. (But, I think they would have been quick enough to show the crowds if it has been Prince Charles and Lady Camilla.)
 

A few days later, while plumping for Ethanol, the Bandit admitted hydrogen powered cars were many decades away from mass production. On the other hand, the United States has massive amounts of corn available for conversion to ethanol, which the Bandit supposes would reduce dependence on imported oil. But that is another pipe dream, as several analyses have shown there is no oil savings in producing ethanol from corn. Nonetheless, Congress authorized big subsidies for its Republican contributors who manage the corn crop and ferment alcohol. (Is it news that the same socio-econo-political elite have been showered with millions and billions?)
 

The probem with American ethanol is its production from corn. Scientific studies have shown that making ethanol from recycled biomass could reduce oil dependence, if the cellulose is used. The trouble with growing corn is the heavy use of fertilizers, pesticides and machinery, all of which require oil. In other words, large volumes of oil are used indirectly in corn agriculture. It appears so much oil is used, that there is no net reduction in the oil required in the full cycle.
 

This negative or indifferent conclusion concerning ethanol also includes an important secondarey calculation. Ethanol does not release as much energy per liter as gasoline in combustion engines; e.g., ethanol reduces a car's mileage per gallon. It takes about twice as much pure ethanol as gasoline to go 100 miles. Thus, when gasoline is blended with ethanol, fuel use is increased. For that reason, the energy used in growing corn has to be multiplied by its relative efficiency per mile to determine its relative cost in gallons of gasoline. It is the decreased energy conversion efficiency of ethanol that makes it uneconomic. It is at least equivalent, in terms of oil used, to put 100% gasoline in the tank.
 

Note: Because of reduced vehicle mileage, using ethanol is in fact inflationary. That is, $1 per gallon for pure ethanol is worth about $2 per gallon for refined gasoline in terms of mileage delivered. Thus, when dealers charge the same price for ethanol-gasoline mixes, the consumer is in fact paying a hidden higher price for the same number of transportation miles. This was apparent to me when we  recently made a round trip to Ashland, Ore in our Toyota Prius. We went to Ashland (mostly uphill) on MTBE laced gasoline, and came back (mostly downhill) on Ethanol blended gasoline. We got 10% better mileage going up the mountains than gliding back down. So, the ethanol blended gas we bought in Ashland for slightly less than the price paid in Davis for MTBE gas was actually more expensive, per mile, over the 300 mile course.
 

This is not to oppose ethanol. It is to rely on those studies which have shown that the source of ethanol is critical. If ethanol can be derived from plant growth which requires very little fossil fuel input, and if the cellulose in biomass can be used, then it may reduce overall oil dependence. (The "if" in cellulose conversion is that it is a subject of intensive research. There is no practical, large scale method of converting cellulose to ethanol now available.)

It would be more efficient to use methanol as fuel, as it has a higher energy (hydrogen) content. Methanol is often used in racing cars. However, it is more difficult to produce methanol and it is corrosive in engines. It dissolves the glues used to seal gaskets, and even some gasket materials, rubber and plastics. Thus, cars using methanol are usually very costly to maintain. Ethanol has some of the same problems, including absorption of water from the atmosphere, so ethanol users can expect higher maintanence costs.
 

Why spend so much time discussing oil and cars? Because Americans won't be separated from their cars. In America, getting a driver's license when a teenager is proof of coming of age, more so than menstrual cycles and erections after puberty. Taking away the car is the ultimate humiliation, the loss of adulthood. I know this personally, as I have to face the possibility of losing my driver's license in a year or two due to my advancing disabilities. The worst part is having to ask someone to drive you around, or pay humungous taxi fares.
 

So, Osama Bin laden is right. He's attacking America's pocketbook. His Arab allies are attacking Americans where it hurts the most: the driver's license slot in that pocketbook. Without our cars, we are nothing.
 

In the end it is cultural beliefs that are a society's undoing.